One of the critical functions of the Washington State Potato Commission is to determine, “what can we do today to ensure our growers will continue to be successful in the future.” Much of our work to prepare for the future is focused on production research and new variety development. It also includes educating the public about what it takes to make food so that we can maintain our social license to operate.
But the most important task for the future is to maintain and even expand our irrigation water supplies.
We’ve been working with our state climatologist for over a decade now, examining the various climate models, to get an idea of what potato growing will look like in 10, 20 and 40 years from now. There is good news and bad news about what the climate models are predicting for potatoes in Washington State. The good news is that we will continue to receive ample precipitation and that the maximum temperatures will not increase. The models are predicting that our maximum temperatures won’t necessarily be increasing but we will experience higher minimum temperatures: higher minimum temperatures in the winter and higher minimum temperatures during those summer nights.
The biggest concerns about higher winter temperatures will be how it affects our mountain snowpack. Our snowpack in the Cascade Mountains is often referred to as nature’s summer water reservoir. Water is stored in the mountains as snow, then it slowly melts in the late spring to provide a steady and consistent supply of water for a significant portion of the growing season.
With warmer winter temperatures, precipitation in the lower mountain elevations will now be rain rather than snow. This will reduce the total amount of snowpack which will mean a reduced total spring runoff. And that runoff will likely occur earlier in the spring when irrigation demand is low. This change in lower elevation snowpack and earlier runoff will strain agriculture and municipal water supplies if nothing is done. We must create or expand water storage facilities or look to aquifer storage to capture that lower elevation rainfall. This is important local action that must be completed to protect potato production in Western Washington.
While it’s predicted that the Cascade Mountains will have less snowpack, the origins of the Columbia River in British Columbia look really good. Climate models are predicting near normal precipitation and snowpack for the western slopes of the Rocky Mountains in Canada. This is good news for 90 percent of the potato production in Washington State.
The Columbia River, behind the Grand Coulee Dam, will continue to be an excellent and sustainable water supply for Central Washington. And this source of water is going to be even more important, as the climate models also suggest that California is going to have to permanently retire 1-2 million acres of irrigated farmland due to a lack of precipitation.
As a nation, we need to decide how to replace the loss of that fruit and vegetable production in California. We can outsource that production to other countries with more sustainable water supplies or we can look north to the sustainable water supply in Washington State. The water behind Grand Coulee Dam could provide for another half-million acres of irrigated farmland. The completion of the federal Columbia Basin Project and the expansion of irrigated ground around Lake Roosevelt can help relocate that loss of fruit and vegetable production in California. California tomato processors see the writing on the wall and have already taken early steps as they look to expand into Washington State.
Can you imagine what will happen to the cost of produce in the grocery store if we are not able to replace the loss of production in California? Last year’s 10 percent drop in potato production caused national prices to increase in the grocery store anywhere between 50-100 percent, depending on the time of year.
Can you imagine a 50-100 percent increase in grocery store prices for the 300 produce items that are grown in California? Those types of price increases are unfathomable for the millions of Americans who are already struggling to put food on the table.
Now is the time to take action to keep fruits and vegetables affordable for all. We can expand food production in Washington State with the sustainable water supplies of the Columbia River.