Abraham Lincoln was once challenged to come up with a saying that could be applied to any situation. After giving it some thought, he said, “And this, too, shall pass.” You have likely heard the same sentiment expressed as, “The only constant you can be certain of is change!” And change in the potato business is certainly the order of the day. Here are four areas of change today that will affect your position in the potato business:
- Consumer tastes and preferences: If you happen to be a frozen process grower in the Columbia Basin, the fact that Pacific Rim nations are enjoying your french fries and are eating more and more of them portends a good future—at present. However, if you grow process potatoes in Idaho aimed mainly at domestic consumption and where domestic frozen french fry consumption is declining, your volume could change. If you happen to be a grower of fresh potatoes, small packages are replacing big packages. Consumption of new, so-called specialty varieties are increasing. So is the consumption of fresh-cut french fries.
- Trade issues: The U.S. dollar’s currently strong position has the potential to shift some domestic frozen production from the U.S. to Canada, affecting Idaho and Midwest process growers. At the same time, it has made U.S. frozen french fries less competitive worldwide, tightening competition between the U.S. and Europe for foreign trade in most places around the globe.
- Variety and market proximity: At one time, Idaho’s high quality Russet Burbank had little or no competition for fresh russet consumption. Now, an acceptable russet potato can be grown much closer to consumer markets. Dr. David Holm’s multiple russet varieties add to growers’ russet options. Add to the equation soaring freight rates, and you have effectively incentivized potato production in areas closer to the consumer.
- Growing, harvest and storage technology: Armies of Ph.D.s from coast to coast annually produce environmentally cleaner and more effective plant support systems. Aggressive storage work is seeing potatoes stored that once could not be stored, stored for longer periods of time, with lower residues, and at a lower cost. The logical goal is for each storage area wishes to ship its own product year-round. And this is only the beginning. Many world government officials now acknowledge that GMOs not only lower food costs, but also contribute to improved public health and welfare. This type of aggressive GMO-positive campaign can and will shape consumer acceptance of GMOs.
Again, change—progress—is a constant. Since the Renaissance, each technological wave has been better than the previous one. Best to understand these coming waves and to ride them to profitability.