HILLSBORO, N.D. — After finishing his pre-pile sugarbeet harvest, which accounted for just a small percentage of his total acreage, the past two weeks has seen no harvest activity for Paul Fossum of Hillsboro, N.D.
“It’s a waiting game right now…kind of in between crops,” Fossum said. “We are waiting on the soybeans and waiting on the start of potato digging. And the sugarbeet regular harvest isn’t supposed to start until the first part of October; however, there are still some growers doing their pre-pile harvesting.”
The Hillsboro area has received some rain recently, but that rain didn’t really help this year’s crops that much, except the sugarbeets. The soybeans had reached the end of their growing cycle, and the potato vines had already been killed.
“But it was nice getting the rain for the sake of the sugarbeets and getting some moisture in the ground,” Fossum said. “The potatoes and sugarbeets will definitely be easier to harvest now that we have some more moisture in the ground. We would like to see another half an inch of rain sometime here just to moisten up everything.”
The soybean crop is looking pretty good, according to Fossum. The crop has a good pod count, but the lack of rain in August has meant that there are a few cases where a three-bean pod might only have two beans and a four-bean pod might contain only three beans. Some growers are estimating a three- to five-bushel-per-acre loss due to the dry August conditions, but it is impossible know until the combines hit the fields.
“Everybody is anxious to start combining and see what’s out there,” Fossum said. “We are all pretty hopeful that it will be at least an average crop, if not an above-average crop. We are crossing our fingers, because the price is really down in the tank.”
If the weather conditions are favorable, Fossum expects to start digging potatoes shortly after Sept. 20. The conditions earlier this year pointed to a possible good potato crop, but the lack of rain has also diminished hopes for a large potato harvest.
“It will still be a respectable crop, but it’s not going to be a bin-buster,” he said. “Hopefully the prices will come around later this year. We won’t know what the crop looks like until it is harvested and put in the warehouses.”
The pricing mechanism for potatoes is different than for most other crops. There is no futures market or forward contract when pricing potatoes for table stock. Instead, the actual theory of supply and demand is largely used to set potato prices.
Unlike wheat, corn and other grains, potatoes cannot be stored for a long period of time, but instead must be marketed in a limited amount of time before they will spoil.
Once harvested, the Red Norland potatoes Fossum grows should keep in good condition up until the end of February or the first part of March if the conditions are right in the warehouse. Typically, the longer the potatoes are in the warehouse, the more shrink is noted, as the potatoes start to lose a little weight due to a slight loss of moisture content. Both storage temperature and humidity are critical to proper potato storage.
“The size of the crop and what the demand is in large part determines market price,” Fossum said. “If the demand is there and the crop size is decent, we can still get a good price. If the demand isn’t there and the crop is huge, that doesn’t bode well for prices. The growers don’t have anything to say on the price.
“You always hope the wash plant will be able to sell potatoes at a decent price, but right now the rumors I am hearing aren’t so good,” he continued. “They are talking prices we received 20 to 25 years ago, or even lower. But our expenses have doubled or even tripled during that time to the highest levels on record.”
Right now potato prices in the grocery stores are as high as $5 for a five-pound bag, which would translate to a per-hundredweight price of $70. However, there is talk of a price of only $6 to $8 per hundredweight to the farmer, once he has paid for his potato production late this year or early next year.
“It’s frustrating when you hear the feedback from the public that with the expensive prices they pay for potatoes the growers must be getting paid well for them,” Fossum said. “Most of that income won’t be seen until well into 2016, and some of it will even be in the middle of 2016 before we see the end of the 2015 crop. Typically, when a sale is made, we won’t see anything for a month after that sale is made.”
Back in 1993, which was one of the first years Fossum grew red potatoes, he was receiving around $7 per hundredweight, and there has been a year or two when the grower prices have been as high as $12 per hundredweight.
“Our yields are a little better than they were back in the early 1990s. Our seeding rate is a little bit heavier, we’ve applied a little more fertilizer, and maybe Mother Nature has been a little bit better to us, which has helped soften the blow on the return side,” Fossum said. “If you are averaging 30 to 40 hundredweight more per acre, you are getting a little more income, even though you are getting the same price per hundredweight. But, overall, it’s really going to be difficult to make money on the potatoes this year.”
Fossum closed his interview with Farm & Ranch Guide by saying potatoes are more intensive to grow than any other crop, and a grower should be rewarded a little more due to the increase in risk, time, labor and money spent growing the crop. Otherwise these growers may begin to wonder if it is worth the effort to grow potatoes for table stock.
Source: Farm & Ranch Guide