The USPB is pleased to deliver the industry's sales and utilization estimates for calendar year 2010. The full report is attached following this story.
The goal of this work is to provide the most reliable estimates possible of key segment U.S. potato sales, and crop utilization based on those sales. Data sources and estimation procedures continue to be refined and improved over time, but like any such estimates, are subject to error and should be used judiciously.
USPB utilization estimates can be compared to other sources, notably those published regularly by governmental agencies such as the USDA, NASS and ERS. When making such comparisons, it should be noted most estimates published by the government are developed from surveys on the supply side. They begin with what is grown on the farm and seek to understand how the crop will be used. Conversely, USPB estimates are developed from the demand side based on available measures of sales and product movement which are then converted to farm weigh equivalents (FWE) in order to estimate utilization.
This year, two things stood out during our analysis:
*It appears the rapid growth of non-traditional food stores during the first part of the most recent decade has ended. Supermarket shares appear to have stabilized, and the game-changing nature of these particular formats have run their course. Until some new development, the result is mass merchants and club stores have settled in with nearly one-third of the retail potato market.
*The data indicates refrigerated potatoes have bumped up significantly in mass merchants and club stores. This is the result of the 2010 Homescan data. Consider these numbers with caution, as the increase is significant.however, it is consistent with what the model says is the case based on confirmed data.
For more information on the USPB's 2011 Potato Sales & Utilization Estimates, please contact USPB Vice President, Domestic Marketing, Kathleen Triou at ktriou@uspotatoes.com or (303) 873-2312 (direct), (303) 369-7783 (main) or (720) 225-0931 (efax).